April 29, 2008--Learning from our arid past (LA Times)
One of the downsides to global warming is drought. About 11 million
people in northeast Africa alone were in serious danger of starvation
in 2006 as a result of drought. The International Institute of Tropical
Agriculture in Nigeria estimates that about 300 million people in
sub-Saharan Africa -- nearly a third of the population -- will suffer
from malnutrition because of intensifying drought by 2010. With
continued warming and more droughts on the horizon, we need to learn
how to better live with our natural world and its cycles. Here
in the Western United States, it's tree rings that tell us that cycles
of wet and dry, warm and cool are the historical reality. As
for the wider West, a grid of more than 600 tree-ring sequences from
throughout the region, compiled by a team at the Lamont-Doherty Tree
Ring Laboratory at Columbia University, puts today's droughts in
perspective. The centuries between AD 900 and 1253 witnessed long dry
spells. After 1300, an abrupt change to wetter conditions lasted for
600 years, then gave way to today's aridity. Some people refer to a
"mega-drought epoch" 1,000 years ago, when cool, dry La NiƱa conditions
persisted for decades over the eastern Pacific and the winter jet
stream stayed well north of what is now California.
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