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October 31, 2012--Winter outlook: No Niño (Telluride News)

No Niño will be coming from the Pacific Ocean this winter, according to climate experts, making this winter’s long-term forecast a toss-up. For months this summer, patterns unfolding in the equatorial Pacific Ocean led forecasters to believe that El Niño — which typically creates wetter weather for the southern U.S. — was on tap for the upcoming winter. But in the last month, the patterns tapered off. “Forecasters thought we were heading into a mild or maybe moderate El Niño … and then just in the last few weeks, nope not quite,” said Joe Ramey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Grand Junction station. “It’s going to be neutral, or what I like to call No Niño conditions.” NOAA forecasters say the neutral pattern makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years. Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, called it “one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected.”

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